Analyst Forecasts A Pick-Up In Pickups

Barclays Analyst Forecasts A Pick-Up In Pickups

Are pickup sales about to rev up? The automotive analysts at Barclays Capital say yes. They see a substantial rebound in full-size truck sales this fall as manufacturers pile on incentives and new construction projects start to ramp up because of projects aided in funding by federal stimulus spending and a rebound in housing.

Barclays doesn’t expect the large pickup truck market share to return to its 2005 peak of 15%, but they do expect the share to rebound from the recent 9% levels under Cash for Clunkers, when shoppers rushed to buy small cars, to around 11% -- as long as gas prices remain below $3.30 a gallon. The national average price of regular unleaded fuel is $2.57 a gallon, according to AAA.

Most of the growth is expected to help GM and Ford, which together account for about 75% share of the segment. Barclays says there’s an incentives battle brewing between the two giants, as Ford tries to grab the 2009 overall corporate truck sales crown from GM and General Motors responds in kind. GM, which counts sales of its Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra full-size trucks, has outsold Ford’s F-Series pickups since 2001.

Full-Size Truck Incentives Chart

Firing the first salvo in the incentives battle, last week Ford announced it was putting up to $5,000 on the hoods of its 2009 pickups. According to Barclays, Ford had been keeping incentives around $3,000 since January.

Barclays also expects Ford and GM pickup production to increase to meet higher demand and to backfill lean inventories on dealer lots. Analysts see Ford F-Series pickup production jumping from 118,000 units in the second quarter to roughly 145,000 units in the third and fourth quarters; they see GM increasing total truck production (full-size pickup and SUV) to 174,000 units in the third quarter from 119,000 units.

Two manufacturers not expected to join in the fun: Toyota and Nissan. Barclays says that Ford’s recent increase in segment share has come at the expense of those companies, especially Toyota. (See our June 2009 year-to-date sales recap for more info on the sales trouble of the Japanese pickups.)

Comments

nothing about dodge? they have a brand new HD truck coming out in less than a month...im sure that will help boost their sales significantly as well

Nothing about Dodge because they account for so little of the segment. Dodge is coming out with the new HD but with carryover engines. It may increase Dodge's sales but not enough overall. Shortly after the Dodge HD is out, the new Ford Super Duty with new engines will be out and Dodge will be once again demoralized again. Take a ride, step inside, you want the best of both worlds: F-150 and Super Duty.

The new Dodge HD will have the exterior and interior refinements that will put Dodge on top. No other HD pickup has a Mega Cab, Rear Air Curtains, and an engine brake. I've had the other brands, and I will not go back. The Ford engine broke, and the GMC would not stop. For all around performance and safety, Dodge is my pick.

I've got a great Dodge truck story coming this week. It'll be awesome.

say what you want about dodge trucks.... but when it comes to the diesel world nothing even comes close to a cummins with the exception of CAT. The duramax and powerstroke dont stack up. who knows about the new in-house powerstroke but the 6.0 and 6.4 are less than admirable in the diesel world.

FYI as far as Dodge HD trucks and Chevrolet & GMC HD trucks , so far as I know Dodge sells more HD trucks than Chevrolet , and far outsells GMC HD trucks , it takes Chevrolet and GMC both to outsell Dodge HD trucks , and Ford destroys GM and Dodge in HD truck sales period , perhaps GM should ask themselves why Dodge dam near outsells GM in heavy duty trucks dare I say people dont think IFS is very good ? something a Ford or Dodge HD truck owner will never say "Is there any IFS conversions for my truck"

Analysts are very good aren't they? When something is going in an upward or downward trend, they predict it will continue going in the same direction. Nobody ever seem to predict when the turn-arounds in trends will happen. That's not to say I don't agree with pickup sales increasing, but I think it's inevitable. Economy is starting to pick up, fuel prices are still reasonably low, and there are a few fresh models that are worth the upgrade.

The new Ram has carryover engine/tranny combos, but I'd rather have something proven, rather then a new engine and/or tranny every time I buy the same brand truck. The 6.7 Cummins is rated at 350/650. How much more power do you really need in a pickup? I buy trucks based on reliability and a proven track record, like my 5.9 common rail Cummins with the 48RE tranny. People complain about reliability issues with new engines/trannys, but when they see a refreshed/new truck with (proven) carryover powertrain components, they complain about it being dated or behind the pack. It leads me to believe that nowadays, two things sell a truck; brand loyalty and the biggest power numbers. I'll sacrifice a couple dozen lbs/ft for reliability any day of the week.

Dustin, would you stand by that comment when Dodge switches over to the 6.7L V8 turbo diesel, as has been rumored for a while, or switches to something Fiat finds suitable? Or would you say "Cool, this is going to be the best diesel ever!"???

Alex,

Not sure if you're speaking hypothetically, or abour rumors. The 6.7 Cummins that Dodge is using shows no signs of disappearing anytime soon. The rumor you're hearing is most likely just a rumor. Sounds just like the one about using CAT engines in the Super Duty. Just a lot of talk that gets circulated to the point of it being either a "serious" rumor, or a fact, depending who you hear it from. I personally have never heard of Dodge switching to the 6.7L V8. Whoever started that rumor seems ill-informed, not knowing dodge uses a 6.7, and getting it confused with Ford's 6.7. That's what it seems like to me anyway. But to answer your question, I'll say this. When I bought my Dodge Ram, I made sure to get the 5.9, and not the (new) 6.7. Hope this clears things up.

(P.S.-if Fiat has any clue, they'll make sure not to cause a rift netween Dodge and Cummins. Mercedes didn't understand, but keeping Cummins engines under Ram hoods was one thing they got right).

In terms of HD there really are only 2 makes dodge and ford. A hd with a ifs front end dont go together. Dodge has a carryover engine because they were years ahead of chevy and ford with the 6.7. I see dodge being the sleeper this year as they have had the time to work out the bugs on their motor and have a totally new hd rolling out and people know that cummins and reliability go hand and hand. Take a look back at all the diesels ford has rolled out over the last few years and every one they claim as being "the one" and it turns out to be another dud. when ford cut ties with navistar they should have lobbied for a cat partnership now that would have make for a real showdown in the hd market.

No Dodge mentioned here either in the heavy duty shootout summary. The winners: Ford, Chevy, and Ford. This must be because Dodge is the best and pickuptrucks.com is just ignoring the mighty Ram. Right?

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But we know at least some of you are curious about which gas and diesel truck we'd select if we were in the market for a hard working hauler.

Out of the three-quarter-ton trucks we'd go with the Ford F-250 V10 Triton. It may not be the quickest performer on the flats but if you need a solid, proven powertrain that can pull hard in the hills with diesel-like performance, this is the truck for you.

We think the one-tons are an easier decision. We'd park the Chevrolet Silverado 3500 and its Duramax in our driveway tomorrow and not give it a second thought. For our reasons why, just read the results below and our assessments from each test.

And the Ford F-450? It's in a class all its own. With the form factor of heavy duty pickup and the towing power of a medium duty, this is one bad-to-the-bone pickup that begs to be used for towing and hauling only the biggest payloads. We think this is the first of new class of one-and-one-half-ton trucks we'll also be testing from Dodge and GM next time we do the Heavy Duty Shootout.

http://www.pickuptrucks.com/html/2007/shootout/hdshootout9mpg.html

@Frank: The reason that Dodge isn't mentioned in this post is because Barclays devoted almost all of its analysis to the Ford and GM pickups.

I'll point out in our 2009 June Year-to-Date sales analysis that I made a big deal about the large market share gain the Ram 1500 made (more than F-150) and that Ram HD outsold Chevy Silverado HD.

WRT the HD Shootout, when you read the analysis of each test you'll see we made a very big deal about how poorly the F-350 6.4-L PSD did compared to the Cummins and Duramax. The F-250 6.8-L V-10 cleaned up in its category because it had an extra two cylinders and about an extra 100 lbs-ft of torque over the GMC and Ram gassers.

I'm not disagreeing with you. The guy above me said there are only two makes in HD: Ford and Dodge. But the shootout said it was Ford and Chevy.

Let's check the numbers again and at the end of the year.

@frank: Gotcha. I'm sorry I misunderstood your comment before I responded. My "brand bias" sensitivity meter must be set to high this evening. :-)

lol to whever said powerstorkes dont stack up to cummins, ford sell more diesel pickups, then chevy and dodge, Powerstorkes are great motors!

where is this sweet dodge article you promised, Mike?

It's written up and coming soon. Some spy pics have pushed it back just a bit. They'll be live Sunday night. You're going to want to see them. :-)

alright thanks



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