Fuel Spike Could Devastate Used Sales

Used Cars Sign

Volatile fuel prices could make prices for used pickups drop by as much as 22 percent, analysts for the National Automotive Dealers Association say.

In a recent story in Automotive News (subscription may be needed to view), Larry Dixon, an analyst for NADA's Used Car Guides, said recent instability in the Middle East and increasing demand in global markets prompted the guide's analysts to put together three scenarios regarding what may happen to the prices of used vehicles if gas prices reach $4, $4.50 and $5 per gallon.

At each level, Dixon predicted a small increase in the prices of compact and midsize cars, and a significant decrease in prices of large pickups and SUVs.

At $4 gas, the analyst projected the prices of large pickups to decrease by 2 percent; at $4.50, 9 percent; and at $5, 22 percent. Arlena Sawyers, the article's author, notes the NADA Used Car Guide analysts do not expect the national average gas price to surpass the peak reached in July 2008, which was $4.11 per gallon.

Although no mention was made of new-vehicle pricing, we'd expect all new large vehicles to take a hit as well. And since this category is typically a big profit center for most automakers, we would expect each manufacturer to continue a steady march toward more technically advanced and efficient powertrains.

The only good news, especially if you are in the market for a used pickup truck, is that no matter what happens there should be some good deals available for full-size used pickups for some time to come.


I got a great deal on a 2005 suburban z71 low miles and all the options in 2008 when gas prices got high, then when the economy crashed i did not spend alot of money on gas =win. So glad i got the 5.4 over the 6.2 and wish they had put the ecoboost in the raptor.

^^^^^^ I am confused by your comment? Are you saying you got a Ford truck too or do you mean a 5.3 in your Suburban?..lol

I had figured on the same thing back in 08 because I thought we'd be seeing a lot more efficient vehicles coming out but that never happened. Not for trucks and uv's anyway.

I'm holding off on buying new because of the poor MPG that trucks get so if I had to replace a truck, I'd buy used. If not in anticipation of something with better mpg, then at least to show the automakers I'm not buying because they aren't listening.

Also the prices have gotten really high. $40k for a pickup?

I think used car sales will be strong for a long time to come. People still need to get around. We're still over the barrel when it comes to fuel options. It's the other stuff people will stop spending money on, thereby keeping the economic recovery from happening.

2008 was just a great year to buy a truck. Dodge was giving trucks away and throwing in lifetime powertrain.

I'm a bit perplexed with anticipated EPA MPG on a 2013 Ram V6 3.6L Pentastar 8 speed Regular cab short bed.. Much lighter and shorter truck than my 2010 Ram Quad Hemi .. 14/22 vs 14/20 ..

It would make for a great science project for me to swap my 2010 Ram Quad Hemi that is returning 12mpg for a 2013 Regular cab short bed Ram with 3.6L V6 8speed and see what MPGs it returns withough changing my driving habbits or pattern. I would gamble I'd get 13mpg vs my 12mpg for a 1 mpg gain.

Does that make any sense? It would seem the gains in the new powertrains are only seen at highway speeds.

Hey cyberpine,
My 2012 JK 4-door with the 3.6 is returning 20.5 mpg average, city & hwy with 5 speed auto.
I would think with 3 extra gears it would go over 25.
Look for this Ram to a big hit at $4.50 a gal.

"My 2012 JK 4-door with the 3.6 is returning 20.5 mpg average, city & hwy with 5 speed auto.
I would think with 3 extra gears it would go over 25."

Too late. Been there done that. Mike Levine and Mark Williams already got over 25 mpg in an EcoBoost F-150 and an average economy of 23.2:


The next big thing will be 30 mpg because 20-25 has already been done.

@Dave - GM's next gen trucks will have class leading mpg...think 25+mpg. Hint. Hint.


Bad for the valuue of the truck i need to sell, good for the 5spd Focus thats for sale, too.
@cyberpine- you have to be pounding the snot out of that poor thing to get 12mpg out of a Ram. Everyone else http://www.fueleconomy.gov/mpg/MPG.do?action=browseList2&make=Dodge&model=Ram%201500%20Pickup%204WD
seems to be doing much better.
@JK- its still a brick- no amount of gearing will get a brick 25mpg. For the time being, it should get the best fuel economy of any comperable truck (remember, the Ecoboost is NOT comparable). GM will also have an 8spd/3.6L V6 soon. Toyota still has some upgrades on the shelf. The next W/T Shoot-out should be fun.

The way gas prices are going, it will be too expensive to fill up your stomach, forget the truck!

GM News websites are projecting 25 mpg or more for the next gen GM trucks with a new V6 and 6 speed.

Fuel prices will come back down when we replace BHO. Now's a great time to buy a used diesel!

@Mike's FX4 i had a 99 suburban (leaglely parents) from 2004-2006 and an 05 form 08-11 and a 2010 raptor 5.4l from 2011-current

@Mrknowitall, how is the Ecoboost not comparable? Thats like saying a truck with a 6 speed is not comparable to a truck with a 5 or 4 speed transmission or and engin with MDS ie hemi is not comparable to the iforce in fuel economy. The hp and torque are comparable between the ecoboost and many V8s so comparing loaded and unloaded fuel economy in comparably equiped trucks is fair . the ecoboost is designed to go against the Tundra and Ram 5.7l motors so its a fair comparison.

I dont know why they dont sell smaller diesel trucks in the US, I have an isuzu d-max 3.0 Turbo Diesel which does 31mpg combined (35 highway) Its a chevy colorado with a slightly different front end, the nissan frontier is called a navara here and gets similar mpg from a 2.5 diesel.

the only downside for here is that diesel is $10 a gallon here because of taxes.


How do you figure that? The president has no control over gas prices, I dont care what the heck republicans say. On top of that, we are EXPORTING a lot of the oil that we drill in the US. So how will more drilling help? More EXPORTING? People fail to realize that while the Keystone pipeline will be great for American jobs, most of the oil that is drilled will be exported to other countries. Dont believe me? Look it up on MSN, CNN, FOX and any other news network other than a republicans mouth.

Oh BTW, I am already paying $4.61 for regular unleaded.

My Prius is worth the exact amount I paid for it in late May 2009 and I have 42k miles on it already. I don't mind the gas prices for the day to day stuff and I sure as hell love having a 3 year old car with no depreciation!

I am waiting for prices to fall more on a good used truck so I can have one again for my hobbies.

Prices for newer, used truck have seemed quite high for a while now. It's also generally easier to get an "invoice" price on a new truck, making them more attractive, along with the incentives and financing that has been available for years now. Older used trucks can be a better value, and now maybe all used trucks will cost less, which is good for buyers.

EcoBoost? I agree it compares well with the 5.7L Tundra and other V8s, when I was shopping last year it was a 5.7L Tundra or EcoBoost.


He doesn't SET gas prices, nobody said he does. He has control over allowing increased domestic supply, which can be regulated to remain for domestic consumption, and have nothing to do with OPEC's manipulated (lack of supply). When news gets out about increase in supply, oil investors sell their stocks, prices go down immediately. I don't care what Democrats say!

You're half-right on your comment. We're a net importer of crude oil, but a net exporter of refined energy products, like gasoline.

While increased production would bring down crude prices at the margin (assuming all else equal), the increased production and subsequent price decline would be minimal since North America only has 2% of known global reserves. Of course these reserves could go up slightly with increased exploration or new drilling technology.

@Luke in CO . Basically right. The US is a net exporter of crude, heating oil, distillates i.e Jet Fuel and Kerosene and I believe oil for grease.

The US uses 20% worlds oil and we only have 2% of the worlds oil reserve so no matter how much more we drill we are going to have a sizable gap and we will have to rely on OPEC. So if we are only drilling at 50% of our capacity and we increase it to 90% of our capacity it would still not change the fact that we only have 2% of the worlds oil reserve and use 20%. I am going to assume that OPEC knows all of this and if I were them I would call your bluff and tell you drill your hearts out but im not lowering the price.

I wish I knew of a solution to this problem as I dont believe Obama about wind and solar being the soultuion. I also think if the govt. going to regulate fuel economy they should start with themselves and the Navy's LCAC's which use a 1,000gph. How about you get the hybrid LCAC before you force a hybrid on my truck (lead by example).

just watch gm new engine.....ecoboost to late fore saving fuel..

I should also note that if the US has more oil then has been reported and its actually enough to make a difference they should use it till we find a more environmentally friendly source of energy.

We use only 20% of what is produced, not 20% of the world's oil supply. And the 2% is only proven reserves, not what could be captured. Nobody thinks Obama's number comes anywhere close to what the real number is.

Gingrich is so obviously above Romney and Santo, that I cannot believe any conservative could vote for them. We need Newt. I am convinced that American voters are not as aware of Newt's magnificent record as Speaker and his amazing ideas as a candidate for president. We will lose the opportunity to elect the greatest president since Reagan and Romney will lose to Obama ...sad time for the USA.

Yes, the ecoboost compares to other big V8s, but less so to base V6s.
The reason we don't have little diesel try ks du.king around 'Murica is because there are those who saw it financially advantageous to keep them (and small diesels in general) out, by getting the EPA to adopt ridiculous NOx limits.
If you sold strawberry jam at the farmers market, and you found out you could sell only 3/4 as many but get twice the price each, would you spend more time in the kitchen?

Its the Pickups & SUVs which are responsible for the high fuel prices. Many Americans can use the space efficient CUVs in the place of Pickups & SUVs. With rear seat(s) folded, these CUVs offer a lot of space.

Even Prius V has lot of interior volume.

It's pickups and suvs that are responsible? LOL. I think not. We are not drilling and shutting down production that is the problem. When Obama took office gas was $1.89 a gallon and we were all driving pickups then.

@Max Reid - I disagree. People buy more fuel efficient vehicles but do they really consume less fuel? My wife's Sienna gets much better mpg than my F150 but it has double the miles on it. Do the math - 20% better mpg but 200% the miles traveled. How many others are in the same boat? I'd say most people. If you want to reduce fuel consumption you have to get away from driving. Period. End of story. High fuel prices will do more to reduce fuel consumption than 40 mpg cars.

I think it is interesting that people blame Obama for fuel prices. IIRC the Republican front runners are "chicken hawks" (Guys who want war but have never been in one themselves). That will do more damage to oil prices than green initiatives. There needs to be a ballance, but stupid right or left wing doctrine ends up screwing the majority that falls somewhere in the middle.

Obama did stop the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada is a bit more reliable than those OPECkers. If the USA doesn't want Canadian oil, the Chinese will buy all that we can sell.

@Mr Knowitall. It would appear the somewhat uneven quality of the diesel fuel appears to be one culprit tied to very little refining capacity. That is why I cannot see a 4.5 or 5 Litre diesel being introduced, very little excess capacity and the fact they charge it appears like wounded bulls for a diesel engine in the US.

Purchasing second hand cars are the good idea because they are present very cheap price in market.

Cost of fuel keeps going up every day now ^

Maybe I'll get a good deal on a nice used truck like I did a few years ago when I bought my silverado. I've been looking threw out the winter but havent found the right one yet. They still want a lot for those duramaxes it's wild how well they have holding there resale value.

When I replaced my truck in 2010, I swore I wasn't going to buy new again. I searched long and hard for a used extended cab longbed truck. (3Yrs old w/50K) Almost everything in that range were crew/shortbeds and they were all around $30K.
The dealer found what I was looking for but had to go 60 mi. away to get it. With the $8K in discounts and incentives they gave me, I didn't have to settle for driving something that I can't use and it cost less than the 3 yr old trucks I looked at.
I might note most 3yr olds have about 100K mi. here in Tx.

I don't buy used cars, just don't like them, never know if somebody died in it or what. Plus I like that new car smell.

I guess if you "never know" then it can't be too bad?

The U.S. has 22.3 billion barrels of proved reserves, a little less than 2% of the entire world’s proved reserves, according to the Energy Information Administration. But as the EIA explains, proved reserves “are a small subset of recoverable resources,” because they only count oil that companies are currently drilling for in existing fields.

How much recoverable oil does the U.S. have in addition to the 22.3 billion Obama had in mind? Start with the Green River Formation in Wyoming: 1.4 trillion barrels—sixty-two times as much as Obama counts.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-is-Obama-Lying-About-US-Oil-Reserves.html

All those estimates may be accurate, but the article fails to mention at what prices those reserves become economically viable. No doubt some of it may be viable now, but if crude needs to be at $250/barrel to justify the expense of extracting most of it, those reserves aren't doing us much good.

remeber newt is neocon which mean not conservative. only conservative that walks the walks of a conservative. Newt works for any one pay him the most money.


My 2011 JKU Wrangler is returning 19.6 mpg average city/highway (50/50 split pretty much, 21-22 mpg on highway), this with a 6 speed manual and 3.73 gears. Sorry, I don't see this engine getting 25 like you think. The Pentastar gets a gets a measly 1 mpg better in the 2012 than the 3.8L boat anchor in my 2011 JK, and you think it will some how magically get 25 MPG in a full size truck? Troll thru the forums on JK Wranglers, and you will see for yourself that power has defintely improved, but mileage is "meh"....around maybe 1-2mpg? That can be thanked in part to the Benz 5 speed they are putting in it.

Sorry, I don't see the truck getting that much better.

And for the high prices, lol! I love seeing people cry about the prices while commuting in their trucks/SUV's. Good lord, commuting in my Jeep is a luxury, could be commuting in a hybrid. I'll pay the price with out complaints. If you complain about fueling up your gas hog......but do not use it for WORK/BUSINESS, then you cannot afford your gas hog .....or are just a whiner/crybaby. I see plenty of that all the time. Grown men...just crying and whining....wah! wah! wah!!!!

Wranglers are not a good comparison for highway fuel economy because of the higher gearing for off-road.

Ford's f150 off road pakage is geared in 3.73 and that gear ratios is avalible on alot of the other trucks as well. 4.10 is standard on the raptor and avalible on fx4 with ecoboost maxtrailer and 20in wheels. he said his wrangle was 3.73 there are alot of 2011-12 f150s that i see driving around with the off road pkg and it only comes with a 3.73, It annoys me that my half ton 2005 suburban z71 had a 4.10 gear ratio , now try to get anything near that in a GM product their highest half ton is geared at 3.42 wtf ford went to a six speed but did not change the axel ratio of its trucks why did GM?

New car smell is over rated. Most people will list this as one of the top reasons they buy new. I enjoyed it for a couple weeks but after awhile it permiated my sinus membraines and I still smelled it when I went to bed at night. It is fumes from the patroleum in the plastic, upolstry, carpet, rubber and adhesives. My manual suggests I open the windows after it has been sitting awhile to allow these fumes to dissipate. 20 months later, I can't say I miss it.
There is something cool about anything virgin, but like anything we really enjoy, it's not nessisarlly good for us.

It is amazing how much stuff we have today is due to the discovery of oil/gas just over a Century ago. The Earth wouldn't sustain more than a couple billion people before that (it's about 5 billion above that today). What sucks for the future generations... it's not infinite and we have nothing that can replace it dollar for dollar.
I guess I went down a wormhole here, but hey,it's not our problem. Make hay while the sun shines!

And in other news, the sky is blue, water is wet, and oranges are usually orangeish

This is why I got out of my truck and into a small car seeing $4-5 gas on the horizon. I am already seeing the effects on used truck prices. The dealer can't sell my trade despite it being low mileage, great shape, and having some desirable upgrades. They keep lowering the price and it now sits little more than $1000 over what they gave me (and I got 'em down on the new car price so I doubt they over allowed on the trade much if any). My truck is a hard sell when local dealers are selling new ones for just a couple grand more.

Check out this website for more ways to save on fuel: http://www.BuyLessGas.com

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