Forecaster Modifies 2015 Pickup Sales Predictions

Sales Lead II

Automotive industry prognosticators are making a few adjustments, and GM looks to be one of the biggest benefactors.

According to Automotive News, IHS Automotive (one of the leading auto industry forecasters) is adjusting its 2015 predictions about how many pickup trucks Ford, GM and Ram will sell. Because fuel prices are relatively low now and look to stay that way into 2015, IHS is predicting GM will sell about 6 percent more pickups than it's selling now; Ford will likely be up almost 2 percent, and Ram will likely stay flat with just more than 577,000 truck sales.

Automotive News notes that with fuel prices down and consumers not feeling as economically pinched, the Ford strategy of moving from steel to aluminum to save weight for better fuel economy hasn't effected the competitors the way Ford had hoped. Add to that the fact that both F-150 plants (Kansas City, Mo., and Dearborn, Mich.) have lost volume due to shutdowns for production line upgrades and you can see why Ford's total expected 2015 sales increases are modest.

Through October 2014, Ford has sold 620,447 pickups, GM has sold 594,572, Ram has sold 359,702 and Toyota has sold 226,133. image by Evan Sears




Considering Ram's average of almost 36,000 trucks per month so far, saying they'll only sell some 36,000 in two months is EXTREMELY pessimistic. If the average holds, RAM should approach or even exceed 400,000 trucks by Dec. 31.

On re-reading the article, I think there are some serious misprints or reporting errors here. What do they mean 'stay flat with 577,000 truck sales when their year has been 25%+ growth nearly every month at only 360,000 sales as of October? There's no mathematical or logical sense as it sits.

If Ford only goes up 2% it will be entirely due to production limitations. Fuel savings and capability are always in a truck buyers mind. Lower gas prices might mean they buy a higher trim truck though.

The original story at Automotive news barely mentions Ram. They said "Its estimate for Ram pickup production remained at 577,380." The wording by PUTC is incorrect. It should say "flatten" as opposed to stay flat.

It does appear that lower fuel prices is saving GM from Ford's aluminum pickup.

"IHS Automotive raised its 2015 production forecast for General Motors' full-sized pickups by 6 percent over previous estimates -- betting that tamer gasoline prices will juice demand for GM's biggest money-maker and help blunt the threat from Ford’s new aluminum-bodied truck."

This last bit is troubling for GM.

"Even with the bump in the revised forecast, IHS still predicts GM full-sized pickup production will drop 4 percent in 2015 from its forecast of 871,290 for this year. Jackson said the decline reflects the natural sales cycle following the first full year on the market for GM's redesigned pickups, which were launched in mid-2013."

Even though GM sales forecast has been revised and improved. They still predict an overall drop in sales.

Not surprising. GM will be the big winner with ford aluminum snafu. Ford will sell less of the over priced, over gadgetized trucks and rams sales are pretty tapped out. Expect GM to continue with being the number one seller of pick up trucks in the world for the 25th year running. Ford will try to add the f850, 950, and larger semi's as pick up trucks to add phony sales figures to their fake claims.

Chevy and gmc are different companies so adding them together is like adding the old Camaro and firebird sales together, it just don't float. Owners of these 2 different trucks get mad when you confuse them. Chevy has they're followers and so does GMC.

I completely disagree they are the same. everyone i know that has a chevy would buy a gmc if they couldn't get a chevy. also i own both

@ CraigMac: "If Ford only goes up 2% it will be entirely due to production limitations."

Ford hasn't increased this year, and many months have decreased. I doubt "production limitations" would affect Fords sales next year. If they did, Ford really effed up the launch.

I had the chance to drive a 2015 Ford F150 in Nashville, TN last week. WOW!!! The new F150 is a game changer in more than one way. I have driven pickups of all brands for more than 37 years, the new F150 drove like a Lincoln and was solid as piece of granite! By far the best driving pickup I have ever had the opportunity to drive.
I think that fuel prices will always be on the mind of the consumer and as you take weight off the truck itself, you add payload and towing capacity.
Ford has increased capability and fuel mileage, seems like that is what most pickup truck owners are looking for and that would show up in sales figures.

Less 2015 F-150's sold?
I am going to own one and the less of them around the better I like it!
I love driving around in a new model pickup that nobody else owns!
I do the same thing with the motorcycles I own, I own the odd brand of motorcycles nobody else owns so when I am at biker show with thousands of other bikes MY bike stands out!
With my new 2015 F-150 I will stand out and get noticed MORE cause I own one of the few out there!
Tell me? Don't you know someone you don't like that owns the same kind of pickup you own and it just tears you up inside?
Like Lou BC owns the same 2013 F-150 I own, I hate my truck cause I don't want to be associated with him just because we own the same type of truck.
Like Hemi, I like him better cause he owns a Ram! I can get along with him.
be honest! I know you guys think the same way but are afraid to admit it.

Once again, PUTC tries to parrot Automotive News and gets it completely wrong.

The IHS forecast is not about sales... it's about factory production numbers, which would always be higher than sales so that there is constantly replenished stock at dealerships.

The fact-checking and proofreading at this site is continuing to go downhill. Hard to take them seriously as a reliable source when articles are simply copied (and not well) from other more authoritative sources like AN that actually send reporters out to get and cover these stories.

GM sells trucks, so why not include both GMC and Chevy? Because the Ford and Ram boys do not like how well GM is doing selling the best pickups available today. Every comparison I have read online has picked the GM HDs as the best truck available today. Now start your whining BOYS!

"Chevy and gmc are different companies so adding them together is like adding the old Camaro and firebird sales together, it just don't float. Owners of these 2 different trucks get mad when you confuse them. Chevy has they're followers and so does GMC."

- Yep. Chevrolet was a real company simply owned by GM-GMC no doubt. Still, they were their own real company until the early 80's. All GM-GMC trucks were in fact Chevrolet company trucks from the 1920's to the early 1990's. The GM-GMC badge was just that. A badge. All Chevrolet designed and powered. There's a good reason Chevrolet still has some followers even if that base is dwindling fast. The Bowtie represented the real deal once upon a time. GM-GMC just provided the transmissions. Which I'm sure Chevrolet Motors could have done without General Motors Corp anyhow.

As you said, even with cars, most Pontiac guys consider the real Pontiac Company dead post 1970's. Real Pontiac Company cars don't use Chevrolet Company engines. These GM-GMC guys need to get over it. Cadillac people want nothing to do with GM-GMC, neither do Chevrolet people.

How do they predict that Ford sales are down on the 2015...when I haven't even seen one on the lot. In Canada they aren't here yet. WTF how stupid is that! People look at what's on the lot and buy usually. To order a truck is done by someone that can wait, but no one wants to wait.

Ford's growth rates will continue to decline. Ram, Tundra, and GM growth rates will continue to rise.

Randy - that isn't what the report says. Comprehension clouded by???????????

GM - revised predictions higher than previous but will decline.

Ram - will flatten (they are running out of manufacturing capacity)

Ford - flatter than expected and will remain so as long as fuel prices are low.

Toyota Tundra - they don't have much room to grow either. An old truck with a new skin.

There are some really entertaining comments in this thread. One of my favorites is the argument against production constraints against the F150. The poster seems to think that won't/shouldn't be a problem. I guess losing half of your production capacity for 6 weeks isn't a consideration? Laughable.

Another? Ford's sales being down this year. Duuuuh. I guess losing 6 weeks of capacity at one of two plants shouldn't impact the number of trucks you sell? Having a new model coming out shouldn't impact the trucks you sell? GM would know ALL about this. Consider this: Silverado was down 16% and Sierra was down 4.6%, even WITH their new truck having been available for several months. So...for Ford to only be down 9.9% YoY with no new truck on sale 11 months into the year and 6 weeks of production downtime just shows how well the F150 really is selling. Let's add the fact that there were news articles galore about how much money GM was putting on the hoods of its old model trucks to move them and it's even more impressive.

Ford will continue to sell more trucks than the combined sales of Chevrolet and GMC,
I visited a Ford dealership and a Chevrolet dealership last week, There were a few people at the Chevrolet dealership but a large crowd at the Ford dealership looking at the 2015 Ford F150.
I talked to many of them and most Chevrolet owners said that they were going to buy a Ford this time rather than the same all stuff coming from Chevrolet , push rod engines and sloppy automatic transmissions etc,
So the only problem Ford has , Can they build enough of them.

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